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Renewal Forecasting: How to Stay Aligned and Avoid Surprises

Episode 4: Johnny Rabe joins CSin15 to share the most tactical episode yet on building forecasting consistency, trust, and accuracy.

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Chris Cardone, Jason Plummer & Johnny Rabe
March 31, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes

In this episode of CSin15, hosts Jason and Chris are joined by guest Johnny Rabe, Customer Success leader at 6sense, to tackle a crucial CS responsibility: renewal forecasting. Johnny shares tactical advice for how CSMs can get better at forecasting—what to include, what to avoid, how to tell the story of an account, and how to maintain leadership trust. They explore the nuances of qualitative vs. quantitative forecasting, how to avoid common pitfalls, and why consistency is the name of the game.

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Key Takeaways

  • Consistency > Perfection

    • Forecasts should be updated regularly (e.g., weekly) even if there’s no big change.

    • Late or missing updates create distrust up the chain.

  • Be Objective, Not Optimistic

    • Avoid fluff. Leadership needs objective facts, not vibes or anecdotes.

    • Highlight adoption metrics, executive engagement, and procurement status—not just positive feelings.

  • Qualitative vs. Quantitative? Context is Key

    • Neither is inherently better—what matters is the context.

    • 20 users logging in is great… if you only have 25 seats. Not so much if you have 150.

  • Track Change Over Time

    • Forecasts tell a story. What’s different from last week? Why?

    • Leaders need clarity on movement and momentum, not just status.

  • The #1 Forecasting Sin: Overcommitting

    • Nothing breaks trust like forecasting a sure thing… and then it churns.

    • It’s better to flag potential risk early and revise up later than surprise your team with bad news.

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Forecasting as a Storytelling Tool

Forecasting isn’t just a task—it’s a narrative. And that narrative often travels all the way to the C-suite and board level. As a CSM, your updates help shape:

  • Leadership confidence in the book of business

  • Resourcing decisions

  • Go-to-market planning

Make sure your updates contribute to a cohesive, well-documented story of the account.

When Risk Emerges, Say Something

If something changes—especially close to a renewal date—don’t wait for your next scheduled update. Flag it immediately:

  • Update Salesforce

  • Notify your manager

  • Document in your Slack or internal channels

Surprises kill forecasting credibility. Timely transparency builds trust.

What Managers Look For

Johnny outlines two major things leaders focus on:

  1. Short-term risk: If a renewal is near and there’s little progress, expect pushback.

  2. Long-term confidence: If you’re forecasting 98% a year out, be prepared to defend that number.

CSM Tips from the Hosts

  • Jason: Be conservative. Flag churn early if you sense anything off.

  • Chris: Ask often. Forecasting starts with candid commercial conversations.

  • Johnny: Great forecasting is a maturity signal—it sets standout CSMs apart.

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